State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2020)

Incidence, Pennsylvania, Colon & Rectum, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 19 years and 2 segments
During 2002-2012, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -3.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.9 to -2.8.
During 2012-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.2 to 0.2.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 58.8. The estimated rate was 59.7.
In 2003, the observed rate was 57.4. The estimated rate was 57.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 55.8. The estimated rate was 55.9.
In 2005, the observed rate was 55.2. The estimated rate was 54.1.
In 2006, the observed rate was 53.4. The estimated rate was 52.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 51.2. The estimated rate was 50.7.
In 2008, the observed rate was 48.9. The estimated rate was 49.1.
In 2009, the observed rate was 47.6. The estimated rate was 47.6.
In 2010, the observed rate was 44.6. The estimated rate was 46.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 44.8. The estimated rate was 44.6.
In 2012, the observed rate was 43.1. The estimated rate was 43.2.
In 2013, the observed rate was 42.9. The estimated rate was 42.5.
In 2014, the observed rate was 41.0. The estimated rate was 41.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 42.3. The estimated rate was 41.2.
In 2016, the observed rate was 40.9. The estimated rate was 40.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 39.6. The estimated rate was 40.0.
In 2018, the observed rate was 38.3. The estimated rate was 39.3.
In 2019, the observed rate was 39.4. The estimated rate was 38.7.
In 2020, the observed rate was 33.3. The estimated rate was 0.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/20/2024 5:32 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.