State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, Pennsylvania, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 50+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 45 years and 5 segments
During 1975-1978, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.6 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.5 to 2.6.
During 1978-1991, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.4 to 0.6.
During 1991-2002, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.0 to -0.7.
During 2002-2017, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.5 to -1.3.
During 2017-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -4.6 to -1.0.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 668.3. The estimated rate was 668.5.
In 1976, the observed rate was 685.2. The estimated rate was 678.9.
In 1977, the observed rate was 677.5. The estimated rate was 689.4.
In 1978, the observed rate was 706.4. The estimated rate was 700.2.
In 1979, the observed rate was 701.9. The estimated rate was 703.6.
In 1980, the observed rate was 711.4. The estimated rate was 707.0.
In 1981, the observed rate was 706.3. The estimated rate was 710.4.
In 1982, the observed rate was 710.1. The estimated rate was 713.8.
In 1983, the observed rate was 717.5. The estimated rate was 717.2.
In 1984, the observed rate was 724.6. The estimated rate was 720.7.
In 1985, the observed rate was 728.0. The estimated rate was 724.2.
In 1986, the observed rate was 724.9. The estimated rate was 727.7.
In 1987, the observed rate was 739.2. The estimated rate was 731.2.
In 1988, the observed rate was 722.6. The estimated rate was 734.7.
In 1989, the observed rate was 737.9. The estimated rate was 738.3.
In 1990, the observed rate was 744.6. The estimated rate was 741.9.
In 1991, the observed rate was 740.2. The estimated rate was 745.4.
In 1992, the observed rate was 739.3. The estimated rate was 738.8.
In 1993, the observed rate was 733.4. The estimated rate was 732.3.
In 1994, the observed rate was 728.7. The estimated rate was 725.8.
In 1995, the observed rate was 720.7. The estimated rate was 719.3.
In 1996, the observed rate was 720.3. The estimated rate was 713.0.
In 1997, the observed rate was 705.4. The estimated rate was 706.6.
In 1998, the observed rate was 691.7. The estimated rate was 700.4.
In 1999, the observed rate was 697.1. The estimated rate was 694.2.
In 2000, the observed rate was 689.3. The estimated rate was 688.0.
In 2001, the observed rate was 681.9. The estimated rate was 681.9.
In 2002, the observed rate was 673.8. The estimated rate was 675.8.
In 2003, the observed rate was 667.4. The estimated rate was 666.2.
In 2004, the observed rate was 653.2. The estimated rate was 656.7.
In 2005, the observed rate was 652.1. The estimated rate was 647.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 638.4. The estimated rate was 638.0.
In 2007, the observed rate was 626.2. The estimated rate was 628.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 617.7. The estimated rate was 619.9.
In 2009, the observed rate was 609.0. The estimated rate was 611.0.
In 2010, the observed rate was 605.3. The estimated rate was 602.3.
In 2011, the observed rate was 595.8. The estimated rate was 593.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 587.6. The estimated rate was 585.2.
In 2013, the observed rate was 572.7. The estimated rate was 576.8.
In 2014, the observed rate was 569.2. The estimated rate was 568.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 561.8. The estimated rate was 560.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 552.9. The estimated rate was 552.4.
In 2017, the observed rate was 544.1. The estimated rate was 544.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 527.2. The estimated rate was 529.0.
In 2019, the observed rate was 514.8. The estimated rate was 514.0.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 10/20/2021 4:53 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.