State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, Tennessee, All Cancer Sites, Hispanic (any race), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 20 years and 4 segments
During 2002-2008, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 6.3 with a 95% confidence interval from 3.0 to 13.2.
During 2008-2013, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -5.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -12.4 to -2.8.
During 2013-2016, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 15.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 8.1 to 20.1.
During 2016-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -5.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -8.3 to -3.4.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 210.5. The estimated rate was 219.0.
In 2003, the observed rate was 235.3. The estimated rate was 232.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 252.1. The estimated rate was 247.4.
In 2005, the observed rate was 277.7. The estimated rate was 262.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 280.9. The estimated rate was 279.4.
In 2007, the observed rate was 265.1. The estimated rate was 296.9.
In 2008, the observed rate was 329.9. The estimated rate was 315.5.
In 2009, the observed rate was 292.5. The estimated rate was 297.1.
In 2010, the observed rate was 261.2. The estimated rate was 279.6.
In 2011, the observed rate was 297.1. The estimated rate was 263.3.
In 2012, the observed rate was 249.9. The estimated rate was 247.8.
In 2013, the observed rate was 230.7. The estimated rate was 233.3.
In 2014, the observed rate was 266.7. The estimated rate was 269.4.
In 2015, the observed rate was 288.3. The estimated rate was 311.0.
In 2016, the observed rate was 383.1. The estimated rate was 359.1.
In 2017, the observed rate was 345.1. The estimated rate was 339.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 317.2. The estimated rate was 320.9.
In 2019, the observed rate was 279.8. The estimated rate was 303.4.
In 2020, the observed rate was 256.8. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 282.3. The estimated rate was 271.1.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/06/2025 4:59 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
For Hispanic incidence data, NHIA (NAACCR Hispanic Identification Algorithm) was used for Hispanic Ethnicity (see Technical Notes section of the USCS ).

Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.