State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Tennessee, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, Tennessee, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2006, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.2 to -0.6.
During 2006-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.9 to -2.3.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 295.6. The estimated rate was 302.1.
In 1991, the observed rate was 297.8. The estimated rate was 299.4.
In 1992, the observed rate was 290.7. The estimated rate was 296.7.
In 1993, the observed rate was 293.1. The estimated rate was 294.1.
In 1994, the observed rate was 288.6. The estimated rate was 291.5.
In 1995, the observed rate was 304.3. The estimated rate was 288.9.
In 1996, the observed rate was 284.3. The estimated rate was 286.4.
In 1997, the observed rate was 294.8. The estimated rate was 283.8.
In 1998, the observed rate was 283.2. The estimated rate was 281.3.
In 1999, the observed rate was 278.3. The estimated rate was 278.8.
In 2000, the observed rate was 277.6. The estimated rate was 276.3.
In 2001, the observed rate was 277.3. The estimated rate was 273.9.
In 2002, the observed rate was 264.1. The estimated rate was 271.5.
In 2003, the observed rate was 266.7. The estimated rate was 269.1.
In 2004, the observed rate was 257.4. The estimated rate was 266.7.
In 2005, the observed rate was 272.9. The estimated rate was 264.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 264.8. The estimated rate was 262.0.
In 2007, the observed rate was 244.6. The estimated rate was 255.2.
In 2008, the observed rate was 238.6. The estimated rate was 248.5.
In 2009, the observed rate was 245.1. The estimated rate was 242.1.
In 2010, the observed rate was 236.8. The estimated rate was 235.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 234.5. The estimated rate was 229.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 227.5. The estimated rate was 223.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 216.4. The estimated rate was 217.9.
In 2014, the observed rate was 217.1. The estimated rate was 212.2.
In 2015, the observed rate was 206.0. The estimated rate was 206.7.
In 2016, the observed rate was 206.2. The estimated rate was 201.3.
In 2017, the observed rate was 197.0. The estimated rate was 196.1.
In 2018, the observed rate was 188.8. The estimated rate was 191.0.
In 2019, the observed rate was 182.9. The estimated rate was 186.0.
In 2020, the observed rate was 178.7. The estimated rate was 181.2.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/05/2024 2:35 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.