State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, Texas, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Female

Line graph with 45 years and 4 segments
During 1975-1987, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.3 to 0.6.
During 1987-1991, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 2.6 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.2 to 3.9.
During 1991-2000, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.9 to -0.3.
During 2000-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.6 to -1.5.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 144.2. The estimated rate was 145.8.
In 1976, the observed rate was 148.0. The estimated rate was 146.5.
In 1977, the observed rate was 148.2. The estimated rate was 147.1.
In 1978, the observed rate was 146.0. The estimated rate was 147.8.
In 1979, the observed rate was 148.3. The estimated rate was 148.5.
In 1980, the observed rate was 149.3. The estimated rate was 149.1.
In 1981, the observed rate was 149.3. The estimated rate was 149.8.
In 1982, the observed rate was 150.5. The estimated rate was 150.4.
In 1983, the observed rate was 152.3. The estimated rate was 151.1.
In 1984, the observed rate was 154.0. The estimated rate was 151.8.
In 1985, the observed rate was 151.2. The estimated rate was 152.4.
In 1986, the observed rate was 152.5. The estimated rate was 153.1.
In 1987, the observed rate was 153.1. The estimated rate was 153.8.
In 1988, the observed rate was 157.0. The estimated rate was 157.8.
In 1989, the observed rate was 163.3. The estimated rate was 161.8.
In 1990, the observed rate was 166.2. The estimated rate was 166.0.
In 1991, the observed rate was 168.3. The estimated rate was 170.2.
In 1992, the observed rate was 170.0. The estimated rate was 169.2.
In 1993, the observed rate was 166.2. The estimated rate was 168.1.
In 1994, the observed rate was 168.8. The estimated rate was 167.1.
In 1995, the observed rate was 167.8. The estimated rate was 166.1.
In 1996, the observed rate was 167.0. The estimated rate was 165.1.
In 1997, the observed rate was 162.6. The estimated rate was 164.1.
In 1998, the observed rate was 161.0. The estimated rate was 163.0.
In 1999, the observed rate was 161.2. The estimated rate was 162.1.
In 2000, the observed rate was 161.2. The estimated rate was 161.1.
In 2001, the observed rate was 158.5. The estimated rate was 158.6.
In 2002, the observed rate was 159.2. The estimated rate was 156.2.
In 2003, the observed rate was 155.4. The estimated rate was 153.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 150.3. The estimated rate was 151.4.
In 2005, the observed rate was 148.1. The estimated rate was 149.1.
In 2006, the observed rate was 146.9. The estimated rate was 146.9.
In 2007, the observed rate was 144.6. The estimated rate was 144.6.
In 2008, the observed rate was 143.0. The estimated rate was 142.4.
In 2009, the observed rate was 138.1. The estimated rate was 140.2.
In 2010, the observed rate was 137.2. The estimated rate was 138.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 136.1. The estimated rate was 136.0.
In 2012, the observed rate was 134.8. The estimated rate was 133.9.
In 2013, the observed rate was 131.3. The estimated rate was 131.9.
In 2014, the observed rate was 129.4. The estimated rate was 129.9.
In 2015, the observed rate was 127.7. The estimated rate was 127.9.
In 2016, the observed rate was 126.3. The estimated rate was 125.9.
In 2017, the observed rate was 125.3. The estimated rate was 124.0.
In 2018, the observed rate was 122.1. The estimated rate was 122.1.
In 2019, the observed rate was 120.1. The estimated rate was 120.2.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/25/2022 9:57 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.