State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Texas, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, Texas, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 3 segments
During 1990-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.4 to 5.1.
During 1993-2002, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.1 to -0.8.
During 2002-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.5 to -2.1.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 280.8. The estimated rate was 277.9.
In 1991, the observed rate was 279.3. The estimated rate was 282.8.
In 1992, the observed rate was 286.3. The estimated rate was 287.9.
In 1993, the observed rate was 294.6. The estimated rate was 293.1.
In 1994, the observed rate was 287.9. The estimated rate was 288.9.
In 1995, the observed rate was 287.6. The estimated rate was 284.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 279.3. The estimated rate was 280.8.
In 1997, the observed rate was 276.8. The estimated rate was 276.8.
In 1998, the observed rate was 271.0. The estimated rate was 272.9.
In 1999, the observed rate was 272.9. The estimated rate was 269.1.
In 2000, the observed rate was 264.6. The estimated rate was 265.3.
In 2001, the observed rate was 262.2. The estimated rate was 261.5.
In 2002, the observed rate was 258.1. The estimated rate was 257.8.
In 2003, the observed rate was 256.3. The estimated rate was 251.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 247.9. The estimated rate was 246.0.
In 2005, the observed rate was 244.4. The estimated rate was 240.3.
In 2006, the observed rate was 223.7. The estimated rate was 234.7.
In 2007, the observed rate was 226.7. The estimated rate was 229.2.
In 2008, the observed rate was 231.1. The estimated rate was 223.9.
In 2009, the observed rate was 216.2. The estimated rate was 218.7.
In 2010, the observed rate was 216.8. The estimated rate was 213.6.
In 2011, the observed rate was 209.5. The estimated rate was 208.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 204.0. The estimated rate was 203.8.
In 2013, the observed rate was 194.8. The estimated rate was 199.1.
In 2014, the observed rate was 189.0. The estimated rate was 194.5.
In 2015, the observed rate was 186.1. The estimated rate was 190.0.
In 2016, the observed rate was 186.6. The estimated rate was 185.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 179.5. The estimated rate was 181.2.
In 2018, the observed rate was 173.3. The estimated rate was 177.0.
In 2019, the observed rate was 179.3. The estimated rate was 172.9.
In 2020, the observed rate was 172.8. The estimated rate was 168.9.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/04/2024 9:16 am.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.