State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, Vermont, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 50+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 45 years and 2 segments
During 1975-1990, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 0.7 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.3 to 1.2.
During 1990-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.3 to -1.1.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 640.8. The estimated rate was 664.5.
In 1976, the observed rate was 623.4. The estimated rate was 669.2.
In 1977, the observed rate was 682.5. The estimated rate was 673.9.
In 1978, the observed rate was 716.5. The estimated rate was 678.7.
In 1979, the observed rate was 671.0. The estimated rate was 683.5.
In 1980, the observed rate was 727.2. The estimated rate was 688.4.
In 1981, the observed rate was 684.5. The estimated rate was 693.3.
In 1982, the observed rate was 688.2. The estimated rate was 698.2.
In 1983, the observed rate was 721.3. The estimated rate was 703.2.
In 1984, the observed rate was 737.0. The estimated rate was 708.2.
In 1985, the observed rate was 692.5. The estimated rate was 713.2.
In 1986, the observed rate was 735.7. The estimated rate was 718.2.
In 1987, the observed rate was 730.6. The estimated rate was 723.3.
In 1988, the observed rate was 694.2. The estimated rate was 728.5.
In 1989, the observed rate was 731.0. The estimated rate was 733.7.
In 1990, the observed rate was 739.4. The estimated rate was 738.9.
In 1991, the observed rate was 717.9. The estimated rate was 730.0.
In 1992, the observed rate was 726.1. The estimated rate was 721.3.
In 1993, the observed rate was 699.0. The estimated rate was 712.7.
In 1994, the observed rate was 708.5. The estimated rate was 704.2.
In 1995, the observed rate was 694.2. The estimated rate was 695.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 698.8. The estimated rate was 687.5.
In 1997, the observed rate was 696.9. The estimated rate was 679.3.
In 1998, the observed rate was 667.7. The estimated rate was 671.1.
In 1999, the observed rate was 686.3. The estimated rate was 663.1.
In 2000, the observed rate was 661.8. The estimated rate was 655.2.
In 2001, the observed rate was 659.1. The estimated rate was 647.4.
In 2002, the observed rate was 629.8. The estimated rate was 639.7.
In 2003, the observed rate was 617.1. The estimated rate was 632.0.
In 2004, the observed rate was 609.6. The estimated rate was 624.5.
In 2005, the observed rate was 591.0. The estimated rate was 617.0.
In 2006, the observed rate was 581.5. The estimated rate was 609.6.
In 2007, the observed rate was 624.7. The estimated rate was 602.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 578.9. The estimated rate was 595.2.
In 2009, the observed rate was 560.5. The estimated rate was 588.1.
In 2010, the observed rate was 624.8. The estimated rate was 581.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 585.1. The estimated rate was 574.1.
In 2012, the observed rate was 553.7. The estimated rate was 567.2.
In 2013, the observed rate was 544.0. The estimated rate was 560.5.
In 2014, the observed rate was 564.4. The estimated rate was 553.8.
In 2015, the observed rate was 563.0. The estimated rate was 547.2.
In 2016, the observed rate was 533.8. The estimated rate was 540.6.
In 2017, the observed rate was 555.8. The estimated rate was 534.2.
In 2018, the observed rate was 531.6. The estimated rate was 527.8.
In 2019, the observed rate was 504.4. The estimated rate was 521.5.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 12/02/2021 11:33 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.