State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1975-2019)

Mortality, Virginia, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 45 years and 3 segments
During 1975-1982, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.2 to 2.6.
During 1982-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.2 to 0.6.
During 1993-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.1 to -2.0.
Yearly points:
In 1975, the observed rate was 258.1. The estimated rate was 258.2.
In 1976, the observed rate was 260.0. The estimated rate was 263.1.
In 1977, the observed rate was 275.0. The estimated rate was 268.1.
In 1978, the observed rate was 266.1. The estimated rate was 273.2.
In 1979, the observed rate was 278.6. The estimated rate was 278.4.
In 1980, the observed rate was 292.3. The estimated rate was 283.7.
In 1981, the observed rate was 282.7. The estimated rate was 289.1.
In 1982, the observed rate was 292.8. The estimated rate was 294.5.
In 1983, the observed rate was 297.9. The estimated rate was 295.1.
In 1984, the observed rate was 294.0. The estimated rate was 295.7.
In 1985, the observed rate was 292.7. The estimated rate was 296.3.
In 1986, the observed rate was 304.4. The estimated rate was 296.9.
In 1987, the observed rate was 297.2. The estimated rate was 297.5.
In 1988, the observed rate was 301.1. The estimated rate was 298.1.
In 1989, the observed rate was 289.2. The estimated rate was 298.7.
In 1990, the observed rate was 303.8. The estimated rate was 299.2.
In 1991, the observed rate was 302.0. The estimated rate was 299.8.
In 1992, the observed rate was 294.7. The estimated rate was 300.4.
In 1993, the observed rate was 298.8. The estimated rate was 301.0.
In 1994, the observed rate was 295.9. The estimated rate was 294.9.
In 1995, the observed rate was 285.2. The estimated rate was 288.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 277.2. The estimated rate was 282.9.
In 1997, the observed rate was 277.1. The estimated rate was 277.1.
In 1998, the observed rate was 268.8. The estimated rate was 271.5.
In 1999, the observed rate was 270.7. The estimated rate was 265.9.
In 2000, the observed rate was 264.0. The estimated rate was 260.5.
In 2001, the observed rate was 251.6. The estimated rate was 255.1.
In 2002, the observed rate was 256.0. The estimated rate was 249.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 250.1. The estimated rate was 244.8.
In 2004, the observed rate was 238.9. The estimated rate was 239.8.
In 2005, the observed rate was 237.9. The estimated rate was 234.9.
In 2006, the observed rate was 229.8. The estimated rate was 230.1.
In 2007, the observed rate was 226.5. The estimated rate was 225.3.
In 2008, the observed rate was 221.6. The estimated rate was 220.7.
In 2009, the observed rate was 215.9. The estimated rate was 216.2.
In 2010, the observed rate was 212.9. The estimated rate was 211.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 207.9. The estimated rate was 207.4.
In 2012, the observed rate was 200.9. The estimated rate was 203.2.
In 2013, the observed rate was 195.2. The estimated rate was 199.0.
In 2014, the observed rate was 194.0. The estimated rate was 195.0.
In 2015, the observed rate was 192.0. The estimated rate was 191.0.
In 2016, the observed rate was 187.8. The estimated rate was 187.1.
In 2017, the observed rate was 184.3. The estimated rate was 183.2.
In 2018, the observed rate was 179.0. The estimated rate was 179.5.
In 2019, the observed rate was 174.0. The estimated rate was 175.8.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 01/24/2022 10:12 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.