State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2022)

Mortality, Virginia, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), All Ages, Male

Line graph with 33 years and 3 segments
During 1990-1999, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to -0.9.
During 1999-2013, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.1 to -2.0.
During 2013-2022, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.9 to -0.8.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 303.8. The estimated rate was 306.8.
In 1991, the observed rate was 302.0. The estimated rate was 302.4.
In 1992, the observed rate was 294.7. The estimated rate was 298.0.
In 1993, the observed rate was 298.8. The estimated rate was 293.7.
In 1994, the observed rate was 295.9. The estimated rate was 289.4.
In 1995, the observed rate was 285.2. The estimated rate was 285.2.
In 1996, the observed rate was 277.2. The estimated rate was 281.1.
In 1997, the observed rate was 277.1. The estimated rate was 277.0.
In 1998, the observed rate was 268.8. The estimated rate was 273.0.
In 1999, the observed rate was 270.7. The estimated rate was 269.0.
In 2000, the observed rate was 264.0. The estimated rate was 263.2.
In 2001, the observed rate was 251.6. The estimated rate was 257.6.
In 2002, the observed rate was 256.0. The estimated rate was 252.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 250.1. The estimated rate was 246.6.
In 2004, the observed rate was 238.9. The estimated rate was 241.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 237.9. The estimated rate was 236.1.
In 2006, the observed rate was 229.8. The estimated rate was 231.1.
In 2007, the observed rate was 226.5. The estimated rate was 226.1.
In 2008, the observed rate was 221.6. The estimated rate was 221.2.
In 2009, the observed rate was 215.9. The estimated rate was 216.5.
In 2010, the observed rate was 213.0. The estimated rate was 211.8.
In 2011, the observed rate was 208.3. The estimated rate was 207.3.
In 2012, the observed rate was 201.5. The estimated rate was 202.8.
In 2013, the observed rate was 196.2. The estimated rate was 198.5.
In 2014, the observed rate was 195.3. The estimated rate was 195.2.
In 2015, the observed rate was 193.5. The estimated rate was 191.9.
In 2016, the observed rate was 189.6. The estimated rate was 188.7.
In 2017, the observed rate was 186.4. The estimated rate was 185.6.
In 2018, the observed rate was 181.4. The estimated rate was 182.5.
In 2019, the observed rate was 176.8. The estimated rate was 179.4.
In 2020, the observed rate was 177.9. The estimated rate was 176.4.
In 2021, the observed rate was 173.7. The estimated rate was 173.5.
In 2022, the observed rate was 170.5. The estimated rate was 170.6.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/06/2025 11:52 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.