State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2019)

Mortality, Virginia, All Cancer Sites, White Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, Virginia, All Cancer Sites, White Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 30 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2000, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.9 to -0.3.
During 2000-2019, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.6 to -1.4.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 209.4. The estimated rate was 211.5.
In 1991, the observed rate was 211.5. The estimated rate was 210.2.
In 1992, the observed rate was 206.5. The estimated rate was 208.9.
In 1993, the observed rate was 209.9. The estimated rate was 207.6.
In 1994, the observed rate was 210.6. The estimated rate was 206.4.
In 1995, the observed rate was 205.0. The estimated rate was 205.1.
In 1996, the observed rate was 201.2. The estimated rate was 203.9.
In 1997, the observed rate was 202.5. The estimated rate was 202.7.
In 1998, the observed rate was 199.3. The estimated rate was 201.4.
In 1999, the observed rate was 201.0. The estimated rate was 200.2.
In 2000, the observed rate was 199.5. The estimated rate was 199.0.
In 2001, the observed rate was 193.7. The estimated rate was 196.0.
In 2002, the observed rate was 193.8. The estimated rate was 193.1.
In 2003, the observed rate was 191.7. The estimated rate was 190.2.
In 2004, the observed rate was 184.0. The estimated rate was 187.3.
In 2005, the observed rate was 186.7. The estimated rate was 184.5.
In 2006, the observed rate was 183.2. The estimated rate was 181.8.
In 2007, the observed rate was 179.1. The estimated rate was 179.0.
In 2008, the observed rate was 176.7. The estimated rate was 176.4.
In 2009, the observed rate was 175.2. The estimated rate was 173.7.
In 2010, the observed rate was 169.8. The estimated rate was 171.1.
In 2011, the observed rate was 170.0. The estimated rate was 168.5.
In 2012, the observed rate was 164.1. The estimated rate was 166.0.
In 2013, the observed rate was 160.8. The estimated rate was 163.5.
In 2014, the observed rate was 161.3. The estimated rate was 161.1.
In 2015, the observed rate was 161.7. The estimated rate was 158.7.
In 2016, the observed rate was 158.8. The estimated rate was 156.3.
In 2017, the observed rate was 153.3. The estimated rate was 153.9.
In 2018, the observed rate was 150.7. The estimated rate was 151.6.
In 2019, the observed rate was 148.0. The estimated rate was 149.4.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 08/14/2022 6:42 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database (2001-2018) - United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (based on the 2019 submission). Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with SEER November 2020 data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.