State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (2002-2021)

Incidence, Virginia, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 20 years and 2 segments
During 2002-2007, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.3 to 5.8.
During 2007-2021, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to -0.8.
Yearly points:
In 2002, the observed rate was 462.2. The estimated rate was 473.6.
In 2003, the observed rate was 491.7. The estimated rate was 477.7.
In 2004, the observed rate was 489.0. The estimated rate was 481.8.
In 2005, the observed rate was 478.6. The estimated rate was 486.0.
In 2006, the observed rate was 483.4. The estimated rate was 490.2.
In 2007, the observed rate was 506.2. The estimated rate was 494.5.
In 2008, the observed rate was 489.9. The estimated rate was 489.4.
In 2009, the observed rate was 500.8. The estimated rate was 484.4.
In 2010, the observed rate was 470.4. The estimated rate was 479.4.
In 2011, the observed rate was 466.4. The estimated rate was 474.5.
In 2012, the observed rate was 465.0. The estimated rate was 469.7.
In 2013, the observed rate was 464.4. The estimated rate was 464.8.
In 2014, the observed rate was 454.1. The estimated rate was 460.1.
In 2015, the observed rate was 447.2. The estimated rate was 455.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 455.1. The estimated rate was 450.7.
In 2017, the observed rate was 444.8. The estimated rate was 446.1.
In 2018, the observed rate was 439.9. The estimated rate was 441.5.
In 2019, the observed rate was 443.8. The estimated rate was 437.0.
In 2020, the observed rate was 405.6. The estimated rate was N/A.
In 2021, the observed rate was 431.2. The estimated rate was 428.1.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/06/2025 9:26 am.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

The 2020 incidence rate is displayed but not used in the fit of the trend line(s). Impact of COVID on SEER Cancer Incidence 2020 data.
Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.

Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.