State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2022)

Mortality, Virginia, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, Virginia, All Cancer Sites, Black Non-Hispanic, All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 33 years and 2 segments
During 1990-1993, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 3.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.8 to 9.3.
During 1993-2022, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.2 to -1.9.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 260.5. The estimated rate was 264.7.
In 1991, the observed rate was 281.1. The estimated rate was 275.0.
In 1992, the observed rate was 285.4. The estimated rate was 285.7.
In 1993, the observed rate was 290.2. The estimated rate was 296.8.
In 1994, the observed rate was 286.2. The estimated rate was 290.7.
In 1995, the observed rate was 280.2. The estimated rate was 284.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 284.4. The estimated rate was 279.0.
In 1997, the observed rate was 273.0. The estimated rate was 273.3.
In 1998, the observed rate was 260.0. The estimated rate was 267.7.
In 1999, the observed rate was 264.1. The estimated rate was 262.2.
In 2000, the observed rate was 268.0. The estimated rate was 256.9.
In 2001, the observed rate was 251.4. The estimated rate was 251.6.
In 2002, the observed rate was 252.1. The estimated rate was 246.5.
In 2003, the observed rate was 250.0. The estimated rate was 241.5.
In 2004, the observed rate was 234.5. The estimated rate was 236.5.
In 2005, the observed rate was 233.9. The estimated rate was 231.7.
In 2006, the observed rate was 224.1. The estimated rate was 227.0.
In 2007, the observed rate was 234.3. The estimated rate was 222.3.
In 2008, the observed rate was 213.9. The estimated rate was 217.8.
In 2009, the observed rate was 207.7. The estimated rate was 213.4.
In 2010, the observed rate was 205.7. The estimated rate was 209.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 201.6. The estimated rate was 204.7.
In 2012, the observed rate was 196.7. The estimated rate was 200.6.
In 2013, the observed rate was 201.1. The estimated rate was 196.5.
In 2014, the observed rate was 191.6. The estimated rate was 192.4.
In 2015, the observed rate was 181.4. The estimated rate was 188.5.
In 2016, the observed rate was 180.7. The estimated rate was 184.7.
In 2017, the observed rate was 183.7. The estimated rate was 180.9.
In 2018, the observed rate was 176.7. The estimated rate was 177.2.
In 2019, the observed rate was 166.1. The estimated rate was 173.6.
In 2020, the observed rate was 172.6. The estimated rate was 170.0.
In 2021, the observed rate was 168.4. The estimated rate was 166.6.
In 2022, the observed rate was 169.5. The estimated rate was 163.2.

Notes:

• Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 07/14/2025 4:42 pm.
• Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 5.3.0).
• ¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).


• Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
  If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
  If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
  If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
  If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
  If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

  
  Statistics for minorities may be affected by inconsistent race identification between the cancer case reports (sources for numerator of rate) and data from the Census Bureau (source for denominator of rate); and from undercounts of some population groups in the census.
  
  Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html
  
  Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.