State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Historical Trends (1990-2020)

Mortality, Virginia, All Cancer Sites, All Races (incl Hisp), Ages 65+, Both Sexes

Line graph with 31 years and 2 segments
During 1990-2000, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: -0.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.5 to 0.1.
During 2000-2020, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -1.7 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.8 to -1.6.
Yearly points:
In 1990, the observed rate was 1,184.1. The estimated rate was 1,208.1.
In 1991, the observed rate was 1,210.3. The estimated rate was 1,205.7.
In 1992, the observed rate was 1,202.0. The estimated rate was 1,203.2.
In 1993, the observed rate was 1,222.0. The estimated rate was 1,200.7.
In 1994, the observed rate was 1,214.2. The estimated rate was 1,198.3.
In 1995, the observed rate was 1,197.4. The estimated rate was 1,195.8.
In 1996, the observed rate was 1,185.6. The estimated rate was 1,193.4.
In 1997, the observed rate was 1,193.2. The estimated rate was 1,190.9.
In 1998, the observed rate was 1,167.8. The estimated rate was 1,188.5.
In 1999, the observed rate was 1,187.3. The estimated rate was 1,186.0.
In 2000, the observed rate was 1,183.4. The estimated rate was 1,183.6.
In 2001, the observed rate was 1,133.7. The estimated rate was 1,163.4.
In 2002, the observed rate was 1,151.7. The estimated rate was 1,143.6.
In 2003, the observed rate was 1,134.5. The estimated rate was 1,124.1.
In 2004, the observed rate was 1,095.8. The estimated rate was 1,104.9.
In 2005, the observed rate was 1,085.7. The estimated rate was 1,086.1.
In 2006, the observed rate was 1,069.2. The estimated rate was 1,067.5.
In 2007, the observed rate was 1,065.7. The estimated rate was 1,049.3.
In 2008, the observed rate was 1,039.8. The estimated rate was 1,031.4.
In 2009, the observed rate was 1,023.2. The estimated rate was 1,013.9.
In 2010, the observed rate was 998.5. The estimated rate was 996.6.
In 2011, the observed rate was 993.4. The estimated rate was 979.6.
In 2012, the observed rate was 953.3. The estimated rate was 962.9.
In 2013, the observed rate was 937.0. The estimated rate was 946.4.
In 2014, the observed rate was 927.5. The estimated rate was 930.3.
In 2015, the observed rate was 923.5. The estimated rate was 914.4.
In 2016, the observed rate was 901.7. The estimated rate was 898.8.
In 2017, the observed rate was 879.4. The estimated rate was 883.5.
In 2018, the observed rate was 863.4. The estimated rate was 868.4.
In 2019, the observed rate was 839.1. The estimated rate was 853.6.
In 2020, the observed rate was 847.5. The estimated rate was 839.1.

Notes:

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 04/26/2024 10:55 pm.
Regression lines calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.8.0.0).
¹ The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:
If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.
If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.
If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.
If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.
If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.
Source: Incidence data provided by the SEER Program and the National Program of Cancer Registries SEER*Stat Database United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Rates are for invasive cancer only (except for bladder cancer which is invasive and in situ) or unless otherwise specified. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The US Population Data File is used with SEER data. Rates and trends in this graph are computed using the same standard for malignancy. For more information see malignant.html

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.