State Cancer Profiles

Interpretation of Historical Trends Data

Mortality, United States, Liver & Bile Duct, All Races (includes Hispanic), All Ages, Both Sexes

Mortality, United States, Liver & Bile Duct, All Races (includes Hispanic), All Ages, Both Sexes

Line graph with 24 years and 5 segments
During 2000-2004, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 2.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 2.2 to 3.7.
During 2004-2007, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.0 to 3.4.
During 2007-2012, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was rising: 3.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.5 to 4.1.
During 2012-2016, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was stable: 1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.2 to 1.9.
During 2016-2023, the APC¹ in the rate of cancer was falling: -0.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -0.5 to -0.1.
Yearly points:
In 2000, the observed rate was 4.6. The estimated rate was 4.6.
In 2001, the observed rate was 4.7. The estimated rate was 4.7.
In 2002, the observed rate was 4.9. The estimated rate was 4.9.
In 2003, the observed rate was 5.0. The estimated rate was 5.0.
In 2004, the observed rate was 5.1. The estimated rate was 5.2.
In 2005, the observed rate was 5.3. The estimated rate was 5.2.
In 2006, the observed rate was 5.3. The estimated rate was 5.3.
In 2007, the observed rate was 5.4. The estimated rate was 5.4.
In 2008, the observed rate was 5.6. The estimated rate was 5.6.
In 2009, the observed rate was 5.8. The estimated rate was 5.8.
In 2010, the observed rate was 5.9. The estimated rate was 6.0.
In 2011, the observed rate was 6.1. The estimated rate was 6.2.
In 2012, the observed rate was 6.4. The estimated rate was 6.4.
In 2013, the observed rate was 6.5. The estimated rate was 6.5.
In 2014, the observed rate was 6.5. The estimated rate was 6.6.
In 2015, the observed rate was 6.7. The estimated rate was 6.7.
In 2016, the observed rate was 6.7. The estimated rate was 6.7.
In 2017, the observed rate was 6.7. The estimated rate was 6.7.
In 2018, the observed rate was 6.7. The estimated rate was 6.7.
In 2019, the observed rate was 6.7. The estimated rate was 6.7.
In 2020, the observed rate was 6.6. The estimated rate was 6.7.
In 2021, the observed rate was 6.6. The estimated rate was 6.6.
In 2022, the observed rate was 6.6. The estimated rate was 6.6.
In 2023, the observed rate was 6.6. The estimated rate was 6.6.


Notes:
Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 06/10/2026 11:32 pm.

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates (deaths per 100,000 population per year) are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (20 age groups: (<1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85-89, 90+). Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US populations included with the data release have been adjusted for the population shifts due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita for 62 counties and parishes in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

The APC is the Annual Percent Change over the time interval. Rates used in the calculation of the APC are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (mortality data and incidence data for SEER areas use 20 age groups while incidence data for NPCR areas use 19 age groups).

Explanation of the Calculation of the Trend:

If the APC is less than -1.5, the trend is falling.

If the APC is between -1.5 and -0.5, the trend is slightly falling.

If the APC is between -0.5 and 0.5, the trend is statistically stable.

If the APC is between 0.5 and 1.5, the trend is slightly rising.

If the APC is greater than 1.5, the trend is rising.

Trends for this graph are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program. Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected racial groups or counties.