## Interpretation of Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer Data

### Death Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer, 2012-2016

States versus United States

Esophagus

All Races, Both Sexes

**Explanation of Column Headers**

**State/County** - The site and sex combination for this comparison.

**Priority Index ^{1}** - The priority index is based upon the direction of the trend and the rate comparison. An index of 1 is the highest priority - that trend is rising and the rate is already higher. An index of 9 is the lowest priority - the trend is falling and the rate is already lower.

**Recent Trends** - This is an interpretation of the AAPC:

**Rising**when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is above 0.**Stable**when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change includes 0.**Falling**when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is below 0.

**AAPC (95% Confidence Interval)** - The Average Annual Percent Change is the change in rate over time. These AAPCs are based upon APCs that were calculated by Joinpoint Regression Program

**Other Notes**

**Line by Line Interpretation of the Report**

#### United States

- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -1.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.1 to -0.8.
- Rate : The death rate is 4.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 4.0 to 4.0 and 14,989 average annual deaths.

#### Puerto Rico (8)

- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 7.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is -5.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -10.6 to 0.3.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 2.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 2.2 to 2.6 and 112 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.6

**Notes:**

Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 01/23/2020 6:43 pm.

^{2}

**Rising**when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is above 0.

**Stable**when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change includes 0.

**Falling**when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is below 0.

Rate Comparison

**Above**when 95% confident the rate is above and Rate Ratio

^{3}> 1.10

**Similar**when unable to conclude above or below with confidence.

**Below**when 95% confident the rate is below and Rate Ratio

^{3}< 0.90

^{1}Priority indices were created by ordering from rates that are rising and above the comparison rate to rates that are falling and below the comparison rate.

^{2}Recent trend in death rates is usually an Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) based on the APCs calculated by Joinpoint Version 4.7.0.0. Due to data availability issues, the time period and/or calculation method used in the calculation of the trends may differ for selected geographic areas.

^{3}Rate ratio is the county rate divided by the US rate. Previous versions of this table used one-year rates for states and five-year rates for counties. As of June 2018, only five-year rates are used.

Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). The Healthy People 2020 goals are based on rates adjusted using different methods but the differences should be minimal. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The 1969-2016 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.

Note: When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate. Suppression is used to avoid misinterpretation when rates are unstable.

State Cancer Registries may provide more current or more local data. Data presented on the State Cancer Profiles Web Site may differ from statistics reported by the State Cancer Registries (for more information).

^{8}Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected geographic areas.

Interpret Rankings provides insight into interpreting cancer statistics. When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate.

Data for United States does not include Puerto Rico.