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Interpretation of Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer Data

Death Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer, 2019-2023

Virginia Counties versus United States

Pancreas

All Races, Both Sexes

Sorted by trend

Explanation of Column Headers

State/County - The site and sex combination for this comparison.

Priority Index 1 - The priority index is based upon the direction of the trend and the rate comparison. An index of 1 is the highest priority - that trend is rising and the rate is already higher. An index of 9 is the lowest priority - the trend is falling and the rate is already lower.

Recent Trends - This is an interpretation of the AAPC:

AAPC (95% Confidence Interval) - The Average Annual Percent Change is the change in rate over time. These AAPCs are based upon APCs that were calculated by Joinpoint Regression Program


Other Notes


Line by Line Interpretation of the Report


United States


Virginia


Smyth County


Prince Edward County


Lee County


Halifax County with South Boston City


Henrico County


Roanoke City


Wythe County


Caroline County


Dinwiddie County


Shenandoah County


Danville City


Roanoke County


Manassas City


Westmoreland County


Rockingham County


Washington County


Franklin County


Loudoun County


Wise County


Stafford County


Chesapeake City


Louisa County


Chesterfield County


Norfolk City


Petersburg City


Portsmouth City


Prince William County


Russell County


Hampton City


Hanover County


Mecklenburg County


Orange County


Virginia Beach City


Augusta County


Lynchburg City


Pittsylvania County


Newport News City


Scott County


Fauquier County


Hopewell City


Bedford City and County


Fairfax County


Accomack County


Alexandria City


Amherst County


Campbell County


Pulaski County


Spotsylvania County


Buchanan County


Henry County


Frederick County


Albemarle County


Arlington County


James City County


Staunton City


York County


Richmond City


Tazewell County


Powhatan County


Botetourt County


Carroll County


Suffolk City


Salem City


Alleghany County and Clifton Forge City Amelia County Buckingham County Charlottesville City Culpeper County Dickenson County Fairfax City Fluvanna County Gloucester County Goochland County Grayson County Greene County Harrisonburg City Isle of Wight County King George County King William County Lancaster County Martinsville City Montgomery County New Kent County Northampton County Page County Patrick County Prince George County Rockbridge County Southampton County Warren County Waynesboro City Winchester City Appomattox County Bath County Bland County Bristol City Brunswick County Buena Vista City Charles City County Charlotte County Clarke County Colonial Heights City Covington City Craig County Cumberland County Emporia City Essex County Falls Church City Floyd County Franklin City Fredericksburg City Galax City Giles County Greensville County Highland County King and Queen County Lexington City Lunenburg County Madison County Manassas Park City Mathews County Middlesex County Nelson County Northumberland County Norton City Nottoway County Poquoson City Radford City Rappahannock County Richmond County Surry County Sussex County Williamsburg City

Notes:
Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 03/16/2026 12:22 am.

Trend2
     Rising     when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is above 0.
     Stable     when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change includes 0.
     Falling     when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is below 0.
Rate Comparison
     Above     when 95% confident the rate is above and Rate Ratio3 > 1.10
     Similar     when unable to conclude above or below with confidence.
     Below     when 95% confident the rate is below and Rate Ratio3 < 0.90

* Data has been suppressed to ensure confidentiality and stability of rate and trend estimates.
** Data are too sparse to provide stable estimates of annual rates needed to calculate trend.
1 Priority indices were created by ordering from rates that are rising and above the comparison rate to rates that are falling and below the comparison rate.
2 Recent trend in death rates is usually an Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) based on the APCs calculated by Joinpoint. Due to data availability issues, the time period and/or calculation method used in the calculation of the trends may differ for selected geographic areas.
3 Rate ratio is the county rate divided by the US rate. Previous versions of this table used one-year rates for states and five-year rates for counties. As of June 2018, only five-year rates are used.
Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (20 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85-89, 90+). The Healthy People 2030 goals are based on rates adjusted using different methods but the differences should be minimal. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US Population Data File is used with mortality data.
Note: When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate. Suppression is used to avoid misinterpretation when rates are unstable.

State Cancer Registries may provide more current or more local data. Data presented on the State Cancer Profiles Web Site may differ from statistics reported by the State Cancer Registries (for more information).

Data for the following has been suppressed to ensure confidentiality and stability of rate and trend estimates:
Appomattox County, Bath County, Bland County, Bristol City, Brunswick County, Buena Vista City, Charles City County, Charlotte County, Clarke County, Colonial Heights City, Covington City, Craig County, Cumberland County, Emporia City, Essex County, Falls Church City, Floyd County, Franklin City, Fredericksburg City, Galax City, Giles County, Greensville County, Highland County, King and Queen County, Lexington City, Lunenburg County, Madison County, Manassas Park City, Mathews County, Middlesex County, Nelson County, Northumberland County, Norton City, Nottoway County, Poquoson City, Radford City, Rappahannock County, Richmond County, Surry County, Sussex County, Williamsburg City

Trend for the following could not be reliably determined due to small number of deaths per year:
Alleghany County and Clifton Forge City, Amelia County, Buckingham County, Charlottesville City, Culpeper County, Dickenson County, Fairfax City, Fluvanna County, Gloucester County, Goochland County, Grayson County, Greene County, Harrisonburg City, Isle of Wight County, King George County, King William County, Lancaster County, Martinsville City, Montgomery County, New Kent County, Northampton County, Page County, Patrick County, Prince George County, Rockbridge County, Southampton County, Warren County, Waynesboro City, Winchester City

Interpret Rankings provides insight into interpreting cancer statistics. When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate.

Data for United States do not include Puerto Rico.