Interpretation of Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer Data
Death Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer, 2013-2017
Explanation of Column Headers
States versus United States
All Races, Both Sexes
State/County - The site and sex combination for this comparison.
Priority Index 1 - The priority index is based upon the direction of the trend and the rate comparison. An index of 1 is the highest priority - that trend is rising and the rate is already higher. An index of 9 is the lowest priority - the trend is falling and the rate is already lower.
Recent Trends - This is an interpretation of the AAPC:
- Rising when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is above 0.
- Stable when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change includes 0.
- Falling when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is below 0.
AAPC (95% Confidence Interval) - The Average Annual Percent Change is the change in rate over time. These AAPCs are based upon APCs that were calculated by Joinpoint Regression Program
- Larger confidence intervals indicate less stability of the data. This is often due to low counts that are not quite low enough to be suppressed.
- Data is currently being suppressed if there are fewer than 16 counts for the time period.
Line by Line Interpretation of the Report
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is rising because the trend is 0.3 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.2 to 0.3.
- Rate : The death rate is 11.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 10.9 to 11.0 and 41,559 average annual deaths.
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 6.6 with a 95% confidence interval from 6.2 to 6.9 and 307 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.6
Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 08/07/2020 6:11 pm.
** Data are too sparse to provide stable estimates of annual rates needed to calculate trend.
1 Priority indices were created by ordering from rates that are rising and above the comparison rate to rates that are falling and below the comparison rate.
2 Recent trend in death rates is usually an Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) based on the APCs calculated by Joinpoint Version 188.8.131.52. Due to data availability issues, the time period and/or calculation method used in the calculation of the trends may differ for selected geographic areas.
3 Rate ratio is the county rate divided by the US rate. Previous versions of this table used one-year rates for states and five-year rates for counties. As of June 2018, only five-year rates are used.
Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). The Healthy People 2020 goals are based on rates adjusted using different methods but the differences should be minimal. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The 1969-2017 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.
Note: When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate. Suppression is used to avoid misinterpretation when rates are unstable.
State Cancer Registries may provide more current or more local data. Data presented on the State Cancer Profiles Web Site may differ from statistics reported by the State Cancer Registries (for more information).
8 Due to data availability issues, the time period used in the calculation of the joinpoint regression model may differ for selected geographic areas.
Trend for the following could not be reliably determined due to small number of deaths per year:
Interpret Rankings provides insight into interpreting cancer statistics. When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate.
Data for United States does not include Puerto Rico.