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Interpretation of Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer Data

Death Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer, 2015-2019

Virginia Counties versus United States

Melanoma of the Skin

All Races, Both Sexes

Sorted by priorityindex

Explanation of Column Headers

State/County - The site and sex combination for this comparison.

Priority Index 1 - The priority index is based upon the direction of the trend and the rate comparison. An index of 1 is the highest priority - that trend is rising and the rate is already higher. An index of 9 is the lowest priority - the trend is falling and the rate is already lower.

Recent Trends - This is an interpretation of the AAPC:

AAPC (95% Confidence Interval) - The Average Annual Percent Change is the change in rate over time. These AAPCs are based upon APCs that were calculated by Joinpoint Regression Program

Other Notes

Line by Line Interpretation of the Report

United States


Arlington County

Chesterfield County

Henrico County

Norfolk City

Prince William County

Roanoke County

Virginia Beach City

Fairfax County

Augusta County Bedford City and County Chesapeake City James City County Loudoun County Newport News City Rockingham County Accomack County Albemarle County Alexandria City Alleghany County and Clifton Forge City Amelia County Amherst County Appomattox County Bath County Bland County Botetourt County Bristol City Brunswick County Buchanan County Buckingham County Buena Vista City Campbell County Caroline County Carroll County Charles City County Charlotte County Charlottesville City Clarke County Colonial Heights City Covington City Craig County Culpeper County Cumberland County Danville City Dickenson County Dinwiddie County Emporia City Essex County Fairfax City Falls Church City Fauquier County Floyd County Fluvanna County Franklin City Franklin County Frederick County Fredericksburg City Galax City Giles County Gloucester County Goochland County Grayson County Greene County Greensville County Halifax County with South Boston City Hampton City Hanover County Harrisonburg City Henry County Highland County Hopewell City Isle of Wight County King George County King William County King and Queen County Lancaster County Lee County Lexington City Louisa County Lunenburg County Lynchburg City Madison County Manassas City Manassas Park City Martinsville City Mathews County Mecklenburg County Middlesex County Montgomery County Nelson County New Kent County Northampton County Northumberland County Norton City Nottoway County Orange County Page County Patrick County Petersburg City Pittsylvania County Poquoson City Portsmouth City Powhatan County Prince Edward County Prince George County Pulaski County Radford City Rappahannock County Richmond City Richmond County Roanoke City Rockbridge County Russell County Salem City Scott County Shenandoah County Smyth County Southampton County Spotsylvania County Stafford County Staunton City Suffolk City Surry County Sussex County Tazewell County Warren County Washington County Waynesboro City Westmoreland County Williamsburg City Winchester City Wise County Wythe County York County

Created by on 08/20/2022 2:35 am.

     Rising     when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is above 0.
     Stable     when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change includes 0.
     Falling     when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is below 0.
Rate Comparison
     Above     when 95% confident the rate is above and Rate Ratio3 > 1.10
     Similar     when unable to conclude above or below with confidence.
     Below     when 95% confident the rate is below and Rate Ratio3 < 0.90

* Data has been suppressed to ensure confidentiality and stability of rate and trend estimates.
** Data are too sparse to provide stable estimates of annual rates needed to calculate trend.
1 Priority indices were created by ordering from rates that are rising and above the comparison rate to rates that are falling and below the comparison rate.
2 Recent trend in death rates is usually an Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) based on the APCs calculated by Joinpoint Version Due to data availability issues, the time period and/or calculation method used in the calculation of the trends may differ for selected geographic areas.
3 Rate ratio is the county rate divided by the US rate. Previous versions of this table used one-year rates for states and five-year rates for counties. As of June 2018, only five-year rates are used.
Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). The Healthy People 2020 goals are based on rates adjusted using different methods but the differences should be minimal. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The 1969-2018 US Population Data File is used with mortality data.
Note: When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate. Suppression is used to avoid misinterpretation when rates are unstable.

State Cancer Registries may provide more current or more local data. Data presented on the State Cancer Profiles Web Site may differ from statistics reported by the State Cancer Registries (for more information).

Data for the following has been suppressed to ensure confidentiality and stability of rate and trend estimates:
Accomack County, Albemarle County, Alexandria City, Alleghany County and Clifton Forge City, Amelia County, Amherst County, Appomattox County, Bath County, Bland County, Botetourt County, Bristol City, Brunswick County, Buchanan County, Buckingham County, Buena Vista City, Campbell County, Caroline County, Carroll County, Charles City County, Charlotte County, Charlottesville City, Clarke County, Colonial Heights City, Covington City, Craig County, Culpeper County, Cumberland County, Danville City, Dickenson County, Dinwiddie County, Emporia City, Essex County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier County, Floyd County, Fluvanna County, Franklin City, Franklin County, Frederick County, Fredericksburg City, Galax City, Giles County, Gloucester County, Goochland County, Grayson County, Greene County, Greensville County, Halifax County with South Boston City, Hampton City, Hanover County, Harrisonburg City, Henry County, Highland County, Hopewell City, Isle of Wight County, King George County, King William County, King and Queen County, Lancaster County, Lee County, Lexington City, Louisa County, Lunenburg County, Lynchburg City, Madison County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Martinsville City, Mathews County, Mecklenburg County, Middlesex County, Montgomery County, Nelson County, New Kent County, Northampton County, Northumberland County, Norton City, Nottoway County, Orange County, Page County, Patrick County, Petersburg City, Pittsylvania County, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Powhatan County, Prince Edward County, Prince George County, Pulaski County, Radford City, Rappahannock County, Richmond City, Richmond County, Roanoke City, Rockbridge County, Russell County, Salem City, Scott County, Shenandoah County, Smyth County, Southampton County, Spotsylvania County, Stafford County, Staunton City, Suffolk City, Surry County, Sussex County, Tazewell County, Warren County, Washington County, Waynesboro City, Westmoreland County, Williamsburg City, Winchester City, Wise County, Wythe County, York County

Trend for the following could not be reliably determined due to small number of deaths per year:
Augusta County, Bedford City and County, Chesapeake City, James City County, Loudoun County, Newport News City, Rockingham County

Interpret Rankings provides insight into interpreting cancer statistics. When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate.

Data for United States does not include Puerto Rico.