Interpretation of Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer Data
Death Rate/Trend Comparison by Cancer, 2016-2020
Virginia Counties versus United States
Melanoma of the Skin
All Races, Both Sexes
Sorted by priority index
Explanation of Column HeadersState/County - The site and sex combination for this comparison.
Priority Index 1 - The priority index is based upon the direction of the trend and the rate comparison. An index of 1 is the highest priority - that trend is rising and the rate is already higher. An index of 9 is the lowest priority - the trend is falling and the rate is already lower.
Recent Trends - This is an interpretation of the AAPC:
- Rising when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is above 0.
- Stable when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change includes 0.
- Falling when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is below 0.
AAPC (95% Confidence Interval) - The Average Annual Percent Change is the change in rate over time. These AAPCs are based upon APCs that were calculated by Joinpoint Regression Program
Other Notes
- Larger confidence intervals indicate less stability of the data. This is often due to low counts that are not quite low enough to be suppressed.
- Data is currently being suppressed if there are fewer than 16 counts for the time period.
Line by Line Interpretation of the Report
United States
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -2.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -4.5 to -0.5.
- Rate : The death rate is 2.1 with a 95% confidence interval from 2.1 to 2.1 and 8,150 average annual deaths.
Virginia
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -4.3 with a 95% confidence interval from -5.6 to -2.9.
- Rate : The death rate is 2.1 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.9 to 2.2 and 206 average annual deaths.
Fairfax County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 9.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is falling because the trend is -7.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -11.1 to -4.0.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 1.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.1 to 1.7 and 17 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.7
Prince William County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 7.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is -1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.7 to 0.8.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is lower compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.0 to 2.2 and 6 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.7
Arlington County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 6.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is -0.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.0 to 1.5.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 2.1 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.3 to 3.3 and 4 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.0
Chesterfield County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 6.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is -1.2 with a 95% confidence interval from -3.5 to 1.2.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.4 to 2.7 and 8 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.0
Henrico County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 6.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is 0.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.7 to 1.7.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 2.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.7 to 3.2 and 9 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.1
Norfolk City
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 6.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is -0.9 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.8 to 1.1.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 1.6 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.9 to 2.6 and 4 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.8
Roanoke County
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 6.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is -0.6 with a 95% confidence interval from -2.7 to 1.6.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 2.3 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.3 to 3.8 and 3 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.1
Virginia Beach City
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index is 6.
- Recent Trend(2) : The trend is stable because the trend is 0.0 with a 95% confidence interval from -1.3 to 1.3.
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 2.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.8 to 3.1 and 12 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.2
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 1.9 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.1 to 3.1 and 3 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.9
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 3.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.7 to 5.0 and 3 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.4
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 3.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 2.1 to 5.6 and 4 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.7
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 1.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.9 to 2.4 and 4 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.7
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 3.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.7 to 5.0 and 3 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.5
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 2.4 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.4 to 4.0 and 3 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.2
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 3.2 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.9 to 5.2 and 4 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.5
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 1.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.2 to 2.6 and 6 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 0.9
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 3.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.7 to 4.9 and 3 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.4
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 2.8 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.6 to 4.6 and 3 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.4
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : This death rate is similar compared to the US rate
- Rate : The death rate is 3.2 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.8 to 5.3 and 3 average annual deaths.
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : The rate ratio is 1.6
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
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- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
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- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
- Priority Index(1) : The priority index cannot be determined.
- Recent Trend(2) : **
- County Death Rate Compared to US Rate : *
- Rate : *
- Rate Ratio(3) County to US : *
Notes:
Created by statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov on 05/13/2024 5:06 am.
Rising when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is above 0.
Stable when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change includes 0.
Falling when 95% confidence interval of average annual percent change is below 0.
Rate Comparison
Above when 95% confident the rate is above and Rate Ratio3 > 1.10
Similar when unable to conclude above or below with confidence.
Below when 95% confident the rate is below and Rate Ratio3 < 0.90
* Data has been suppressed to ensure confidentiality and stability of rate and trend estimates.
** Data are too sparse to provide stable estimates of annual rates needed to calculate trend.
1 Priority indices were created by ordering from rates that are rising and above the comparison rate to rates that are falling and below the comparison rate.
2 Recent trend in death rates is usually an Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) based on the APCs calculated by Joinpoint Version 4.8.0.0. Due to data availability issues, the time period and/or calculation method used in the calculation of the trends may differ for selected geographic areas.
3 Rate ratio is the county rate divided by the US rate. Previous versions of this table used one-year rates for states and five-year rates for counties. As of June 2018, only five-year rates are used.
Source: Death data provided by the National Vital Statistics System public use data file. Death rates calculated by the National Cancer Institute using SEER*Stat. Death rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, ... , 80-84, 85+). The Healthy People 2020 goals are based on rates adjusted using different methods but the differences should be minimal. Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI. The US Population Data File is used with mortality data.
Note: When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate. Suppression is used to avoid misinterpretation when rates are unstable.
State Cancer Registries may provide more current or more local data. Data presented on the State Cancer Profiles Web Site may differ from statistics reported by the State Cancer Registries (for more information).
Data for the following has been suppressed to ensure confidentiality and stability of rate and trend estimates:
Accomack County, Alexandria City, Alleghany County and Clifton Forge City, Amelia County, Amherst County, Appomattox County, Bath County, Bland County, Botetourt County, Bristol City, Brunswick County, Buchanan County, Buckingham County, Buena Vista City, Campbell County, Caroline County, Carroll County, Charles City County, Charlotte County, Charlottesville City, Clarke County, Colonial Heights City, Covington City, Craig County, Culpeper County, Cumberland County, Danville City, Dickenson County, Dinwiddie County, Emporia City, Essex County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier County, Floyd County, Fluvanna County, Franklin City, Franklin County, Fredericksburg City, Galax City, Giles County, Gloucester County, Goochland County, Grayson County, Greene County, Greensville County, Halifax County with South Boston City, Hampton City, Harrisonburg City, Henry County, Highland County, Hopewell City, Isle of Wight County, King George County, King William County, King and Queen County, Lancaster County, Lee County, Lexington City, Louisa County, Lunenburg County, Lynchburg City, Madison County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Martinsville City, Mathews County, Mecklenburg County, Middlesex County, Montgomery County, Nelson County, New Kent County, Newport News City, Northampton County, Northumberland County, Norton City, Nottoway County, Orange County, Page County, Patrick County, Petersburg City, Pittsylvania County, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Powhatan County, Prince Edward County, Prince George County, Pulaski County, Radford City, Rappahannock County, Richmond City, Richmond County, Roanoke City, Rockbridge County, Russell County, Salem City, Scott County, Shenandoah County, Smyth County, Southampton County, Spotsylvania County, Staunton City, Surry County, Sussex County, Tazewell County, Warren County, Washington County, Waynesboro City, Westmoreland County, Williamsburg City, Winchester City, Wise County, Wythe County, York County
Trend for the following could not be reliably determined due to small number of deaths per year:
Albemarle County, Augusta County, Bedford City and County, Chesapeake City, Frederick County, Hanover County, James City County, Loudoun County, Rockingham County, Stafford County, Suffolk City
Interpret Rankings provides insight into interpreting cancer statistics. When the population size for a denominator is small, the rates may be unstable. A rate is unstable when a small change in the numerator (e.g., only one or two additional cases) has a dramatic effect on the calculated rate.
Data for United States does not include Puerto Rico.